Pau! The Fantasy Landscape Has Changed…

Pau Gasol is a Laker. No matter how many times I type that sentence I still can’t believe it’s true. By now you all know what went down. Gasol and a 2nd round pick were traded to the Lakers in exchange for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, the rights to Marc Gasol, and the Lakers 2008 and 2010 1st round picks. The Lakers instantly became real contenders in the already stacked West, while the Grizzlies waived the proverbial white flag for the season to build for the future.

This deal will have huge ramifications across the league, and could very well create another “arms race” similar to the one that occurred when LA signed Gary Payton and Karl Malone in the summer of 2003. Back then the Wolves added Sam Cassell and Lattrell Sprewell, the Kings traded for Brad Miller, and the Mavericks added Antawn Jamison and Antoine Walker, all in hopes of staying on par with the Lakers. With the trade deadline fast approaching we know that several Western Conference General Managers will be working hard to once again keep pace with LA, with guys like Jason Kidd, Ron Artest, and Mike Bibby being the top targets.

While the Lakers big trade is sure to make a huge impact on the NBA, it’s also going to shake things up for fantasy players. Let’s take a look at the fantasy implications for the relevant players involved in the deal.

Pau Gasol: Might as well start with the centerpiece of the trade. Gasol has been a bit disappointing so far this season, but that should change in LA. With Andrew Bynum out Pau will be asked to man the middle for the Lakers, and with the opposition’s attention focused on Kobe we know Pau will get his fair share of open looks. Of course, when Andrew Bynum comes back Pau’s production should drop a little, so adjust his value accordingly.

Kobe Bryant: Don’t worry about Kobe. He will be a top fantasy player regardless of who is on the court with him.

Lamar Odom: Once again Odom gets to become the 3rd option, which he seems comfortable with. Unfortunately for fantasy owners the ball won’t be in his hands much, so he should return to the disappointing numbers he was putting up prior to Bynum’s injury. What’s really scary is that when Bynum returns LO will see a substantial drop in rebounds as he slides to the small forward spot and becomes the 4th option on offense. You may want to look into moving him before that happens.

Andrew Bynum: The addition of Pau doesn’t make me worry about Bynum’s production. What does make me worry is his conditioning following the knee injury. Bynum’s explosion this year has mainly been a result of his vastly improved stamina thanks to an intense off-season training regimen. If his knee injury causes him to lose his endurance Bynum’s production will drop regardless of what Gasol does.

Derek Fisher: D-Fish isn’t a great fantasy option right now, but he does have an occasional big game for the Lakers where he pumps in 20+ points in addition to a three and great percentages. Those days are probably gone now that Pau is in town, so feel free to drop him in favor of someone else.

Jordan Farmar: Losing Crittenton actually doesn’t free up any extra minutes for Farmar, since Javaris typically played alongside Jordan as a shooting guard. As a result we shouldn’t see any change in his limited fantasy value.

Rudy Gay: The Grizzlies are now Gay’s team to lead. Rudy has been absolutely tremendous this season, and could actually be even batter sans Gasol. This is Rudy’s chance to really step up as a leader. He is a guy who could wind up being a top 30 pick next year if he responds well to the responsibility of leading the Grizzlies. His ceiling is very, very high, so hang onto him and consider yourself fortunate if you own him.

Mike Miller: The Grizzlies very nearly sent Mike Miller to LA instead of Gasol. The writing is on the wall, and I would be very surprised if Miller was still in Memphis after the trade deadline. He will have great value while he is still in a Grizzlies uniform, but if he is sent to a team that wants to use him solely as a spot-up shooter his value will take a hit.

Darko Milicic: Darko could be the biggest winner here. With Pau gone Darko becomes the man in the middle for the Grizzlies. While Rudy Gay and Mike Miller will be the first and second options, Darko should still see a nice increase in rebounds and points. If he is available in your league pick him up, but just make sure you can handle his poor free throw percentage.

Hakim Warrick: Along with Darko, Hakim Warrick should see a nice increase in value. Warrick should start at power forward for the Grizzlies, and has shown flashes of being a solid fantasy player in the past. The rest of the season will be Warrick’s chance to prove that he is a guy to keep around while Memphis rebuilds. There is always a possibility that the Grizzlies decide to go small with Navarro taking Warrick’s minutes, but take a chance and pick Warrick up anyway.

Kwame Brown: Most analysts right now are predicting that the Grizzlies will start Kwame and Darko side by side. I just don’t see that happening. Memphis is rebuilding, and would be much better served by finally giving major minutes to Warrick to see what he can bring to the table. Kwame is just an expiring contract and won’t be part of the Grizzlies long term plans. In fact rumors are circulating that Kwame may be bought out before he ever dons a Grizzlies uniform.

Mike Conley: Conley is the PG of the future in Memphis, and the addition of Crittenton doesn’t change that. Conley’s value remains the same, although you still have to worry about Kyle Lowry cutting into his minutes…once Conley is healthy, that is.

Javaris Crittenton: The Grizzlies are getting destroyed in the media right now partially because Crittenton is the best player they got for Gasol, and he plays a position that they already have 2 young, talented players in. However, point guards are always in high demand in the NBA, so Memphis can move one of Crittenton, Conley, or Lowry and expect to get good value in return. That being said, Javaris is still a few years away from having fantasy value.

Juan Carlos Navarro: This has to be one of the more interesting sub-plots of the trade. JCN forced a trade from Washington to Memphis in the off-season in order to play alongside his fellow Spaniard, and he can’t be too happy to see Pau traded away just a few months later. Still, if Kwame is bought out and Crittenton is considered too raw for major minutes Navarro could see a substantial boost in production, especially if the Grizzlies decide to play small ball. He has teased fantasy owners all year and this could be just the opportunity he needs to truly break out.

Aaron McKie: No, he isn’t playing anymore, but the guy got a sizeable payday because the Lakers (who owned McKie’s rights) signed and traded him to Memphis in order to make salaries match. That’s right, he gets paid and doesn’t have to do anything for it. It’s good to be Aaron McKie.

Before I go just let me say this: my condolences to Bulls fans. Chicago and Memphis have been discussing Gasol deals since last season, and then the Lakers came in and stole him right out from under their noses. It’s been a nightmare season for Chicago, and seeing Gasol go elsewhere for so little in return must be like salt in the wound.

So who do you think the big fantasy winner is in the Gasol trade? Leave me a comment and let me know…

credit to { Trevor Lane }

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Posted by Denz on Feb 8 2008. Filed under sports headlines. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.